Both scenarios map a flood event with a 1 per cent chance of occurring in any given year, known as a 1% Annual Exceedance Probability (1% AEP). For comparison purposes, the October 2022 flood has also been mapped.

Download the maps

Flood extent maps show the areas affected by flood water. They also show the pre-existing Land Subject to Inundation Overlay (LSIO) currently included in Planning Schemes. Impacted communities will be advised when the public exhibition stage begins.

Flood level and depth maps show additional detail on the height of flood water across the affected areas. Flood levels, indicated by contour markers, are measured in metres to Australian Height Datum (AHD, or average sea level). Flood depths, indicated by shading, are measured from a property’s ground level – and can vary considerably.

Interpreting the maps

The new Maribyrnong River Flood Model provides information to prepare communities for flood risk.

• 2024 scenarios show our best understanding of flooding today. This is used by VICSES and councils in emergency planning, including Municipal Flood Emergency Management Plans and Local Flood Guides.
• 2100 scenarios show predicted flooding in the year 2100, factoring in climate change assumptions set out in the Australian Rainfall and Runoff Guidelines 2019. This information is used in decisions on land use planning, i.e. assessing planning and building applications against flood risk.

Even if the maps show your property is subject to flooding, your home or buildings may not necessarily flood. This depends on the flood depth – which is best understood at the individual property level as it can vary greatly – as well as the distance between the floor and the ground.

We encourage you to confirm your property’s flood depth directly with Melbourne Water so you have the precise information to understand your flood risk. To find out more about flooding and your property, follow the link below.